NY State Savings Estimate Memo

This memo summarizes the effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA) on state Medicaid spending in New York. The estimates in this memo are based upon results from a complete simulation using the Urban Institute’s Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model, New York Version (HIPSM -NY) and are intended to provide analytic support to the state’s policymakers. HIPSM simulates the decisions of businesses and individuals in response to policy changes, such as Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) expansions, new health insurance options, subsidies for the purchase of health insurance, and insurance market reforms. A comprehensive analysis of the coverage and cost implications of various reform options in addition to a detailed methodological description of HIPSM-NY will be released in the near future. The model only includes New York residents below age 65. Pre-reform estimates of the number of non-elderly individuals enrolled in each eligibility category and their associated expenditures are consistent with of the New York Medicaid program’s administrative data.